Book Review: Decisive
Chip & Dan Heath show us how to make better decisions and avoid biases through their simple but powerful framework.
I’m passionate about learning, and love reading books. Writing up book summaries and reviews helps me consolidate learning and share my best reads with others. Enjoy…
I recently read "Decisive” by Chip Heath and Dan Heath, one of the best reads I’ve had in a while. It was a cathartic read, replaying many decisions I’ve made either myself or in teams, and thinking through how they might have played out differently had I applied some of the lessons here.
Decisions are hard, namely because of the devils of bias on all our shoulders that help nudge us in the wrong direction. This book has a few simple principles to bring structure and process to help reach better decisions.
The authors state early on that the research and academia surrounding decision making is complex and often borderline impenetrable outside of those that dedicate their careers to research on the topic. They have intentionally written the book in a way that the lessons are simple enough to be held in the average person’s brain the next time a decision making process comes their way.
Heath & Heath explain the biases that we commonly encounter, including:
Confirmation Bias: The tendency to seek information that confirms preexisting beliefs, leading to a one-sided view of a situation.
Narrow Framing: Focusing on a single aspect of a decision while neglecting the broader context or alternative options.
Short-Term Emotion: Allowing strong, immediate emotions to drive decisions, often at the expense of long-term goals and rationality.
Overconfidence Bias: Overestimating one's abilities and underestimating the likelihood of negative outcomes, leading to risky choices.
Hindsight Bias: Believing, after an event has occurred, that the outcome was predictable all along, which can distort one's evaluation of past decisions.
Sunk Cost Fallacy: Continuing to invest in a decision or project based on prior investments, even when it's clear that continuing is not in one's best interest.
Anchoring Bias: Giving disproportionate weight to the first piece of information encountered, often leading to skewed judgments.
Availability Heuristic: Relying on readily available information or recent experiences to make decisions, which can lead to skewed perceptions of probability.
Groupthink: Prioritising consensus and harmony in group decision-making, often at the expense of critical evaluation and diverse perspectives.
Status Quo Bias: Preferring the current state or sticking with the default option because change or deviation requires more effort or perceived risk.
I’ve seen all of these play out through myself and others. I’ve had sometimes had success at reducing or removing their influence in the past, sometimes less so.
To focus on just one of these - Narrow framing often comes up in the discussion of ideas for product development. There are loads of good ideas that make sense to execute in isolation, but they’re almost always a trade off that needs to be considered against their opportunity costs.
More substantial, one-off decisions can arrive in a context of ‘do we do this or not’. I can think of several decisions that I’m sure we’d have made differently if we’d approached them using the advice to ‘widen your options’ (below), and instead considering the trade-offs and alternatives, and deciding instead on ‘which do we choose’.
Tackling these biases, Chip & Dan suggest the following four pillars. What’s nice is that they are pretty much sequenced along the decision making journey, from identifying the decision to be made, evaluating it, making it, and learning from it.
Widen Your Options: The authors argue that many decisions fail because people limit themselves to a narrow set of options. To overcome this, they suggest techniques like considering the opportunity cost of your choices, exploring "multitracking" (pursuing multiple options simultaneously), and seeking out diverse perspectives to expand your choices.
Reality-Test Your Assumptions: Decisions often go awry because they are based on flawed assumptions. The book encourages readers to challenge their assumptions by gathering more information, conducting experiments, and testing their beliefs. It introduces the concept of the "ooch" – a small-scale, low-risk experiment to learn more about a potential decision.
Attain Distance Before Deciding: Emotions can cloud judgment and lead to impulsive decisions. The Heath brothers suggest that you should create emotional distance by imagining you're advising a friend or by taking a step back from the situation to gain perspective. This can help you make more rational choices.
Prepare to Be Wrong: Accepting that you might be wrong and embracing uncertainty is crucial in decision-making. The authors recommend adopting a "bookend" approach, where you consider the best-case and worst-case scenarios. By preparing for both outcomes, you can mitigate risk and make more robust decisions.
Thanks to the Heath bros for this great read. You can pick up your copy here.